Modelling container ship transport flow: an application to alternative sea routes between Northeast Asia and Northwest Europe

The Northeast Passage (NEP) has always been an attractive transport alternative for trade between Northwest Europe and Asia due to its shorter distance. While a growing body of literature addresses the economic technical viability NEP transit shipping, there is still need increased knowledge on features maritime regions that could potentially use route. This study aimed propose conceptual model explain main factors influencing cargo demand transported by container ships in order analyse types increase using NEP. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied empirical data volumes suggested logistics performance greatest impact total volume ship flow these regions. are further disaggregated examine how analysed varied commodity groups. contributes identifying which type may be most receptive case opening regular shipping whilst offering insights into global policy uncertainty demand.